SWODY2
SPC AC 010601
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SW AND CENTRAL
TX...
..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE NERN PACIFIC MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
ALONG THE W COAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON WEDNESDAY...AS NRN
BRANCH OF JET STREAM BECOMES AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM WITH RIDGING OVER
NRN PLAINS/CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES.
MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM UPPER LOW...NOW APPROACHING SRN CA...WILL
MIGRATE EWD FROM THE SWRN STATES TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF W TX BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAKER VORTICITY CENTER TRACKS SLOWLY NEWD
FROM OK/AR TO THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NNEWD FROM UT/CO BORDER ALONG ERN
PERIPHERY OF NERN PACIFIC TROUGH THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z THURSDAY.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND WSWWD
FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO MO...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING TWO BOUNDARIES
EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS.
..SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF TX...
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH BOUNDARIES EXTENDING
FROM THE MID MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER PARTS
OF WRN/CENTRAL TX AND SERN NM AS TSTMS DEVELOP EWD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WITHIN REGION OF
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF SWRN
STATES TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND SW TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 50 KT WLY
MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING SWRN TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD TO SW TX
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THUS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS TSTMS MOVE EWD OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SW/WEST CENTRAL TX. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN
MCS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME AND MOVE TOWARD
CENTRAL PARTS OF TX.
..ERN MT INTO NRN WY...
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
ALONG NRN HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN
TRACK NNE TOWARD SRN SASKATCHEWAN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INTO ERN PARTS OF MT
/SURFACE DEWPOINTS JUST ABOVE 50 F/ ALONG/E OF LEE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SURFACE HEATING SUGGEST MUCAPES VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MT/NRN WY AS ASCENT AHEAD
OF UT/CO IMPULSE REACHES THIS AREA BY PEAK HEATING. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING NNEWD
ACROSS ERN MT WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND PRECLUDE
INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..CENTRAL/SERN VA AND NERN NC...
MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO
OFF THE NRN ATLANTIC COAST DURING DAY 2. SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER MID
LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION AS COLD FRONT TRACKS SSEWD THROUGH VA REACHING
THE VA/NC BORDER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
.PETERS.. 05/01/2007
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