SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011151
TXZ000-011415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL TX.
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 011151Z - 011415Z
CLUSTER OF HEAVY TSTMS -- EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS HAMILTON/SAN
SABA/MASON/LLANO/LAMPASAS COUNTIES AS OF 11Z -- WILL MOVE ESEWD
ACROSS SOME AREAS ALREADY AFFECTED BY PRIOR TSTMS...WITH SOME ECHO
TRAINING POSSIBLE GIVEN ZONAL COMPONENT OF MCS ORIENTATION. AREAS
BENEATH AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...ACROSS
BURNET/BELL/CORYELL/MCLENNAN/FALLS/LIMESTONE/MILAM/ROBERTSON/WILLIAM
SON AND POSSIBLY TRAVIS COUNTIES...WILL EXPERIENCE 1-2 INCH/HOUR
RAINFALL RATES...LOCALLY/BRIEFLY 2-3 INCHES/HOUR.
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD NEAR AND N OF WESTERN SECTION
OF SFC WARM FRONT...ANALYZED FROM JUST N AUS ESEWD ACROSS BPT
REGION. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS AND GPS DATA SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH AROUND 14 G/KG
MEAN MIXING RATIONS AS PART OF ABOUT 1.5 INCH PW. ACTIVITY WILL BE
MOVING INTO AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG
ELEVATED MUCAPE. 45 KT SSWLY LLJ EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER
DATA SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AFTER 12Z....BUT STILL WILL MAINTAIN
BOTH FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ALONG SRN PORTION OF MCS AND
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
.EDWARDS.. 05/01/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
30899905 31319812 31629735 31629648 31139635 30599701
30429750 30489821 30579896
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