SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011709
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-011915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...NRN IND...SRN LWR MI...NW OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 011709Z - 011915Z
A WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z...IF NOT BEFORE.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY IN CONFLUENT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR CHICAGO...
EASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
BORDER AREA INTO NORTHERN OHIO. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED
80F...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RISING TO AROUND 60F...CONTRIBUTING
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG.
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY INTO THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING
HOURS...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY LOCALLY APPROACH 2000 J/KG.
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...AND MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE BY THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER... THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT INITIATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED BOUNDARY BASED STORMS
COULD OCCUR A BIT EARLIER. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE NEAR LAKE
BREEZE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. IF THIS OCCURS...A MODERATELY
SHEARED DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS.
INITIATION/INTENSIFICATION OF ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS ALSO
APPEARS POSSIBLE ABOVE WARM FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER FARTHER TO THE
EAST...ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE.
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE A BIT BETTER
ACROSS THIS REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
.KERR.. 05/01/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
41958738 42358612 42428477 42258375 42178273 42088185
41348190 40968297 40908433 41088587 41158666 41158761
41318837 41578787
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