DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150906
SWOD48
SPC AC 150906

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 AM CST THU NOV 15 2012

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4-5...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH MONDAY
/DAY 5/...THOUGH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IN TX CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DAY 5. CUTOFF UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE ERN SEABOARD LATE
DAY 4 OR 5 WHILE ERN U.S. SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MODIFIED CP AIR TO BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH
TX. THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR PROBABLE...THERE WILL LIKELY
NOT BE INSUFFICIENT TIME FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM WAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS DAY 5.

DAY 6-7...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SRN
STREAM WAVE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SERN STATES DAY 6...BUT NELY SFC
TRAJECTORIES WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

DAY 8...SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE BY DAY 8 OVER TX GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF NEXT SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVERTISED BY ECMWF AND GFS. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
EXISTS AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF
ANY SUCH FEATURE SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FORECAST.

..DIAL.. 11/15/2012

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