MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1959

ACUS11 KWNS 102006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102005
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-102230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102005Z - 102230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OFF
THE MOUNTAINS OF N-CNTRL NM ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A RISK OF
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS OVER WHEN
CONVECTION WILL DEEPEN INTO SUBSTANTIAL LIGHTNING-PRODUCING STORMS
AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A QLCS...WHICH MAY AWAIT INTERACTION WITH
GREATER BUOYANCY FARTHER E. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE
NEXT HOUR...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...LOBE OF STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS HAS AIDED IN A
BELT OF SHOWERS AND SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS N-CNTRL NM.
DESPITE MEAGER BUOYANCY...A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH
VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES /CHARACTERIZED BY 0-3 KM SHEAR AROUND 50
KT PER ABQ VWP DATA/ WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS. EVEN
WITH MINIMAL LIGHTNING...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT MAY YIELD
OCCASIONAL SEVERE GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THE
SURGE OF ASCENT INTERSECTS WITH MODEST BUT COMPARATIVELY HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S E OF THE 102ND MERIDIAN AFTER
00Z.

..GRAMS/HART.. 10/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 39150465 40510336 40720224 40470133 39520105 38770110
36660180 35810264 35230371 35170464 35440501 35780527
39150465

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