DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 100838
SWOD48
SPC AC 100838

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ECMWF AND MREF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY ON
SUN/D4...DEPICTING A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIKELY MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FROM N TX INTO
SD AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND
COULD OCCUR WITH A FEW STORMS.

THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ON MON/D5 WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
A LEADING SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE CNTRL OR NRN PLAINS. GREATER SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FROM N TX INTO KS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY FROM NEB INTO NWRN OK AT 00Z.
SEVERE HAIL...WIND...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES COULD OCCUR...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BY
D5.

IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED...WITH A COLD FRONT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. THIS WOULD
FAVOR LESS SEVERE STORMS AND MORE TRAINING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN.
THE GFS IS CURRENTLY SHOWS A BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW...BUT EVEN
SO...INSTABILITY REMAINS A QUESTION DUE TO ANTECEDENT CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

PREDICTABILITY DECREASES FURTHER INTO THE D6-D8 PERIOD.

..JEWELL.. 10/10/2013

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