DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101623
SWODY1
SPC AC 101621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS AZ. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO
SOUTHEAST CO BY EVENING...THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEB BY FRI
MORNING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND TURBULENT MIXING WILL RESULT IN A DEEP PBL AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN CO/WESTERN
KS/SOUTHWEST NEB...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG BY 00Z.

A FEW DISCRETE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN KS/TX PANHANDLE PRIOR TO SUNSET WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH A HIGH-BASED
LP SUPERCELL POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN BY MID EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING
COMMENCES.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING AS LARGE SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS.
MOST MESOSCALE MODELS AGREE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW LINE OF
STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. LIMITED CAPE WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE RISK OF HAIL.
HOWEVER...STRONG/SEVERE WINDS ALONG THE LINE ARE LIKELY.

..HART/COHEN.. 10/10/2013

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