SWODY2
SPC AC 311846
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2009
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER
LOW ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TOP THE WRN
U.S. RIDGE BEFORE TURNING SEWD INTO WRN SD LATE. OF SOME CONCERN
WILL BE THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WITHIN INCREASINGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...MAINLY FROM WRN SD INTO NERN
CO. A WELL PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THIS
REGION WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN REGIONS WHERE STRONGER
HEATING/STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS UPPER FEATURE WITH PWAT VALUES ONLY
EXPECTED TO APPROACH ONE INCH. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
...SOUTHERN AZ...
NRN EXTENT OF MEXICAN MOISTURE PLUME WILL EXTEND INTO SRN AZ DURING
THE DAY2 PERIOD. IT APPEARS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE GREATLY TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NECESSARY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE THAN ADEQUATE CLOUD LAYER MOISTURE/BUOYANCY
FOR POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS BENEATH STRONGER STORMS.
..DARROW.. 08/31/2009
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