Monday, August 31, 2009

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 310845
SWOD48
SPC AC 310845

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR THREAT AREA...

THE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLES REMAINS LARGE CONCERNING THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN EVOLUTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK NOW
APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS...AND PROGGED TO NOSE TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT...RECENT TRENDS IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE AWAY FROM STRONG DIGGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S...WITH PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS AND
UPPER FORCING MOST SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
APPEARS LOW UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

..KERR.. 08/31/2009

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