Monday, August 31, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311622
SWODY1
SPC AC 311618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHEAST...
PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE S-SEWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO/SRN GA TODAY...LIMITING DEGREE
OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. ALTHOUGH...WEAKENING MID LEVEL
IMPULSE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY MAY SUPPORT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS INTO GA...WHILE FRONT/SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS MAINTAIN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND. 12Z SOUNDINGS OVER FL INDICATED SEASONABLY COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPS /AROUND -7C TO -8C AT H5/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF
FL. THEREFORE...A FEW MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PULSE-SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EWD MOVEMENT INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES TODAY. NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENT
SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WY/SWRN MT...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY EVOLVE
LATER TODAY WITH ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/WIND NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS. FARTHER S-SE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTS ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE NARROW ZONE OF
INCREASED WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ROTATING AROUND NRN ROCKIES UPPER LOW
SKIRTING THE WY/CO BORDER REGION TODAY. THIS MAY INCREASE SHEAR/EWD
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER SERN WY/NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN POSE A RISK OF HAIL/WIND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EWD THREAT OF SVR MORE LIMITED OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO
STRONGER CINH.

..EVANS/GRAMS.. 08/31/2009

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