SWODY1
SPC AC 311937
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2009
VALID 312000Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING REGARDING SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
SCENARIOS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY AREA OF
CONCERN IS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WHERE DEEPENING CU FIELD IS NOTED
FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE OF SERN WY...SWD INTO THE SAN JUANS OF CO.
THIS CONVECTION WILL SOON DEVELOP LIGHTNING BEFORE SPREADING TOWARD
THE PLAINS WHERE MLCAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER FORECAST.
..DARROW/ROBINSON.. 08/31/2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009/
...SOUTHEAST...
PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE S-SEWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO/SRN GA TODAY...LIMITING DEGREE
OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. ALTHOUGH...WEAKENING MID LEVEL
IMPULSE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY MAY SUPPORT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS INTO GA...WHILE FRONT/SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS MAINTAIN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND. 12Z SOUNDINGS OVER FL INDICATED SEASONABLY COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPS /AROUND -7C TO -8C AT H5/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF
FL. THEREFORE...A FEW MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PULSE-SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EWD MOVEMENT INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES TODAY. NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENT
SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WY/SWRN MT...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY EVOLVE
LATER TODAY WITH ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/WIND NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS. FARTHER S-SE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTS ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE NARROW ZONE OF
INCREASED WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ROTATING AROUND NRN ROCKIES UPPER LOW
SKIRTING THE WY/CO BORDER REGION TODAY. THIS MAY INCREASE SHEAR/EWD
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER SERN WY/NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN POSE A RISK OF HAIL/WIND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EWD THREAT OF SVR MORE LIMITED OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO
STRONGER CINH.
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