SWODY1
SPC AC 150047
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN WV TO ERN TN...
...KS-NRN OK - SWRN MO...
CONVECTION IS FINALLY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF
WRN/SRN KS EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED IN PART BY A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT IS LOCATED OVER SWRN KS INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. SFC
TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY HOT NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WIND SHIFT
WITH READINGS STILL AOA 100F. GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES NOTED WITH
THESE STORMS...ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-2 INCHES...AND THE RELATIVELY
HIGH BASES...SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AS RH
VALUES WITHIN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER ARE FAIRLY LOW. LATEST THINKING
IS A GRADUAL UPWARD EVOLVING MCS COULD EMERGE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SPREADING INTO SWRN MO/NERN OK AND
PERHAPS EXTREME NWRN AR. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND UPDRAFTS BECOME MORE
ELEVATED IN NATURE.
...WRN WV TO ERN TN...
AN EXTENSIVE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN
OH...SWWD INTO MIDDLE TN. THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD PROGRESS STEADILY
SEWD INTO WRN WV/ERN KY/TN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A NARROW WEDGE
OF YET-TO-BE OVERTURNED STEEP LAPSE RATES EXISTS OVER ERN KY AND
THIS MAY PROLONG THE INTENSITY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. EVEN
SO...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT AND PRIMARILY
UNTIL 03Z.
...ELSEWHERE...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STRUGGLED TO OBTAIN ANY
MEANINGFUL INTENSITY...POSSIBLY DUE TO MARGINAL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.
A FEW WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS AS THEY SPREAD TOWARD WCNTRL WI BEFORE WEAKENING.
..DARROW.. 08/15/2010
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