SWOD48
SPC AC 190848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES MONDAY.
BEYOND THE DAY4 PERIOD...MOVEMENT AND AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE
INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS HANDLED A BIT DIFFERENTLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS. THE GFS IS STRONGER/SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE
ECMWF. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY MON-WED TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES IN SPEED/INTENSITY WILL NEGATE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME.
..DARROW.. 09/19/2008
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