SWODY2
SPC AC 191725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A
WEAKENING/SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE-LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE IN THE WESTERN STATES AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
...UPPER MIDWEST...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS EASTWARD OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC...A COLD
FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. OWING TO MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER /75-80 F/...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP/INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DECELERATING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. IN SPITE OF A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE
TSTMS...INCLUDING STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE TO
AROUND 1000-1250 J/KG...BEING WELL-REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES SUGGESTS WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CONSIDERABLY LIMIT A
SEVERE RISK SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. RELATIVELY COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ATOP A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT A
FEW STRONGER TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT VERY WEAK LOW TO MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD CONSIDERABLY LIMIT ANY SEVERE RISK.
...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
WITH THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A COOL UPPER TROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ORE/ID AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ID/WESTERN
MT GIVEN THE COOL PROFILES ALOFT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. ANY SUCH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/MARGINAL IN
NATURE.
..GUYER.. 09/19/2008
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