SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011644
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-011745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SWRN MN AND SERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 011644Z - 011745Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS FROM CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO SERN SD...THOUGH COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW.
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NWRN MN SWWD INTO SWRN SD...WITH A 50-75
MILE BAND OF CLOUDS LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT... PRIMARILY NEAR
THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE MORE DENSE CLOUDS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS HAVE AIDED IN WARMING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM
1500-2500 J/KG. DESPITE THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WARM
TEMPERATURES AROUND 700 MB ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH.
ALSO...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THOUGH VEERING
WIND PROFILES SHOULD MAINTAIN STORM UPDRAFTS. THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS...BUT THE
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT ISOLATED AND BRIEF.
.IMY.. 08/01/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
43029717 42869915 43940035 46499457 46359400 45249327
43859531
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