SWODY2
SPC AC 010550
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH
ONTARIO THURSDAY...REACHING QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT
ATTENDING THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY AND APPROACH THE NERN STATES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TRAILING
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
..GREAT LAKES AREA...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL HAVE ADVECTED
NEWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED TO SOME EXTENT BY
MODEST 6-6.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN POST FRONTAL REGION ACROSS SRN CANADA AND EXTREME NRN
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...FLOW WILL INCREASE IN VICINITY
OF FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EWD...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN PARTS OF
LOWER MI THROUGH UPPER MI WHERE WLY 35 TO 40 KT WINDS WILL EXIST IN
THE 700-500 MB LAYER. STRONGEST DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN CANADA. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL EXIST ALONG FRONT
AND LAKE BREEZES TO INITIATE A FEW STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN LOWER MI WHERE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE.
..NERN STATES...
MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY ADVECT NEWD THROUGH WARM
SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH SERN CANADA.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF A
PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FOCUS SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZES OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...AND THESE
MAY POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO TIME OF DAY
WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..NRN CA...NWRN NV AND SRN OR...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD INTO THIS REGION ALONG WRN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. MID LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTENING ATTENDING
THIS FEATURE MAY PROMOTE HIGH BASE STORMS WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
THROUGH MID EVENING.
.DIAL.. 08/01/2007
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