Thursday, May 17, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180030
SWODY1
SPC AC 180028

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2007

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SRN AND CNTRL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...

OROGRAPHIC FORCING ENHANCED BY SURFACE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN CONTRIBUTED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM ERN UT
THROUGH CO...NM AND ERN AZ. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

AN APPARENT MCV WAS OBSERVED MOVING THROUGH ERN NM. STORMS PERSIST
WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER SOUTH
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO APPEAR MORE
ORGANIZED WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. INSTABILITY IS A BIT
STRONGER AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THIS REGION
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 35 TO 40 KT. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MIGHT
SURVIVE OR DEVELOP INTO FAR WRN TX WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THROUGH MID EVENING. HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED.

..NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH
PLAINS...


HIGH BASED STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT AND ID WITH
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DEEPLY MIXED. MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD OVER TOP OF UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...SO STORMS ARE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
EVENING...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED.

.DIAL.. 05/18/2007

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