SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171806
WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-172000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0825
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN KY...EXTREME NERN TN...WRN
WV...SRN OH...EXTREME WRN VA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 171806Z - 172000Z
AREA OF TSTMS IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN KY...AND
WILL EXPAND/INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AS IT
SHIFTS GENERALLY ESEWD TOWARD HIGHER TERRAIN. OCCASIONAL HAIL AND
ISOLATED STG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MULTICELL CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL ATTM FOR WW.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW NEAR LEX...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD
ACROSS NRN PORTION MIDDLE TN. LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND
PERHAPS BECOME OPEN WAVE. FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA...WITH MOST CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG AND E OF FRONT. MOST
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS NOW OVER CENTRAL KY AND SRN OH
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISPLACED WWD FROM STRONGEST LOW-MIDLEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES NOW OVER MOUNTAINS FROM PA-NERN TN...AS
MOTION OF UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EACH REGIME ESEWD. MODIFIED RAOBS AND
RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN AOB 15 KT THROUGH
SFC-700 MB LAYER OVER MOST OF CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AREA...WHICH WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE AND BULK SHEAR IN LOW LEVELS.
THIS FACTOR...COMBINED WITH LACK OF MORE ROBUST SFC MOISTURE...WILL
LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF SVR POTENTIAL. STILL...PRESENCE OF MLCAPES
200-500 J/KG AND WEAK CINH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SFC DEW POINTS 40S F
-- COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
BENEATH MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND
ASSOCIATED WET BULB EFFECTS IN PRECIP CORES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH STG GUSTS AND HAILSTONES TO REACH SFC.
.EDWARDS.. 05/17/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
39068156 38908300 38378431 37518492 36848528 36348543
35908458 36018355 36808208 37518124 38278137
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