Saturday, October 9, 2010

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091723
SWODY2
SPC AC 091721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF WRN OK AND ADJACENT
NWRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
U.S. IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST WHILE A SECOND TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST. IN
BETWEEN...AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA.

MEANWHILE...WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE...A CUT-OFF LOW IS PROGGED
TO DRIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED/WEAK
SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS KS/OK/NWRN TX DURING
THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD FOCUS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAKER FRONT MOVES
SWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIGS SEWD WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION.

...WRN OK/NWRN TX...
MEAGER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE BUT STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SWD-MOVING UPPER LOW SHOULD LEAD TO MODEST
DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING AWAY FROM THE LOW SHOULD
HINDER WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT ASCENT INVOF THE
SUBTLE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FUEL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM INITIATION.

MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
CELLS -- WHERE A RELATIVELY DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER/POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL
MAINTAIN 15% PROBABILITY/SLIGHT RISK THIS FORECAST...THOUGH IT
APPEARS ATTM THAT THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.

..GOSS.. 10/09/2010

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