SWODY1
SPC AC 100056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS MID-UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN...PERSISTENT CYCLONE OVER SD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY CUT
OFF FROM HIGHER-LATITUDE NWLYS. MID-UPPER VORTEX SHOULD DRIFT SWD
ACROSS NEB...WHILE RELATED/OCCLUDED SFC LOW WEAKENS FURTHER OVER SD.
ADDITIONAL/WEAK SFC LOW FORMATION IS POSSIBLE FARTHER E ALONG WARM
FRONT...WHICH IS DRIFTING NWD ACROSS PORTIONS NERN SD AND W-CENTRAL
THROUGH SERN MN. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SEWD ACROSS ERN NEB THEN
BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY SSWWD OVER CENTRAL OK...AND IS RETREATING
NWD AS WARM FRONT ACROSS SW OK AND SRN PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE. WEAK
SFC LOW...EVIDENT IN MESONET OBS INVOF PVW...IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS MID-UPPER GYRE DRIFTS SWD.
...N-CENTRAL PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FCST TO CONTINUE INVOF MID-UPPER LOW THROUGH
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SFC DIABATIC COOLING WILL STABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER
THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
COMBINE WITH MRGL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT TSTM PTNL.
FAVORABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES PERSIST FOR MAINTAINING AREAS OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE...MAINLY AROUND PROXIMAL NRN SEMICIRCLE OF
CYCLONE AS LOW DRIFTS SWD. MOST VIGOROUS CELLS STILL MAY PRODUCE
HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FCST TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY AFTER
09Z...INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH END OF PERIOD AND
INTO EARLY DAY-2. MODIFIED RUC/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOIST
ADVECTION IN 700-800 MB LAYER AND FAVORABLY STEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO YIELD ELEVATED MUCAPE 500-800 J/KG WITH LITTLE OR NO
CINH. WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS AT BASE OF EFFECTIVE INFLOW
LAYER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...E.G. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDE...MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND HAIL
POTENTIAL...PERHAPS STARTING JUST BEFORE 12Z.
..EDWARDS.. 10/10/2010
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