Saturday, October 9, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091241
SWODY1
SPC AC 091239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...

DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL ASSUME AN EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTER AS
IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY CUTOFF FROM HIGHER MOMENTUM ZONAL FLOW
REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS CANADA. NONETHELESS...SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A
BELT OF 40-45 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW AROUND SRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF
CIRCULATION ALONG WITH A POCKET OF RELATIVELY COLD /I.E. AROUND -16
C/ TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT INTENSE VORTICITY MAXIMUM CURRENTLY
OVER NEB WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT CYCLONICALLY AROUND PARENT
CIRCULATION...LIKELY SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

DESPITE MARGINAL MOISTURE QUALITY...A RATHER STEEP TEMPERATURE LAPSE
RATE WAS OBSERVED ABOVE 850 MB BY THE 12Z BIS/ABR SOUNDINGS. WHEN
COUPLED WITH INCREASED DIABATIC WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...
EXPECT POCKETS OF MODEST INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J
PER KG/ TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON INVOF OCCLUDED SURFACE CYCLONE AND
ATTENDING SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF ABOVE-MENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY FOSTER A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTMS LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES...RELATIVELY COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND 30-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF HAIL IN
THE STRONGER...MORE PERSISTENT STORMS.

..MEAD/JIRAK.. 10/09/2010

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