SWODY1
SPC AC 170446
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2009
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE DAY ONE
PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES CONFINED TO THE NRN
UNITED STATES. THE SWWD EXTENSION OF A LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SEWD ACROSS FL WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS REMAINING
ALONG THE HIGHER MOMENTUM POLAR AIR STREAM FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE WRN END OF
THIS BOUNDARY SAGGING MORE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL INTO SRN
HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE....A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA.
...S FL...
THE COMBINATION POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL EFFECTIVELY LIMIT BOTH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE AOB 500 J PER KG/ AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH ALONG AND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT TODAY. NONETHELESS...CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND PERHAPS DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
..MEAD/SMITH.. 03/17/2009
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