SWODY1
SPC AC 171242
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2009
VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COAST...THE OVERALL FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME NEARLY
ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. THE BELT OF STRONGEST WLYS WILL LIE
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING E FROM MANITOBA TO ONTARIO AND HUDSON
BAY...WITH SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE FAR N-CNTRL
CONUS COMMENCING NEAR 12Z/WED. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE WRN END OF THIS
BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT OVER THE FL PENINSULA SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE KEYS BY EARLY
WED.
...SRN FL...
POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AS EVIDENCED IN 12Z RAOBS/ WILL
EFFECTIVELY LIMIT BOTH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOB 500 J
PER KG/ AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH INVOF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK AND WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FARTHER E OF THE
REGION...SUPPORT FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH SUFFICIENT CHARGE
SEPARATION FOR LIGHTNING APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A
CATEGORICAL TSTM OUTLOOK AREA.
...LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY TO LK ERIE...
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY WED WITHIN A MODEST
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME ALONG A WSW TO ENE ORIENTED FRONTAL
ZONE. WITH ONLY MEAGER MOISTENING EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z/WED...ANY
APPRECIABLE TSTM THREAT SHOULD LIE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD.
..GRAMS.. 03/17/2009
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