SWODY1
SPC AC 231256
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2008
VALID 231300Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD AS
PACIFIC TROUGH NOW NEAR 140W EVOLVES INTO AN UPR LOW OFF THE CNTRL
CA CST. SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE NRN HI PLNS WILL AMPLIFY
ESE INTO THE MID/UPR MS VLY AS DEEP DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM WITHDRAWS
FARTHER N INTO LABRADOR. PLNS TROUGH WILL PARTLY PHASE WITH UPR LOW
NOW IN SK/MB...RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE
NRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY. AT THE SFC...
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS TODAY
...AND THE MID MS VLY/SRN PLNS OVERNIGHT.
...ARKLATEX INTO LWR MS VLY...
SFC AND SATELLITE PW DATA SHOW LOW-LVL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SPREAD
SLOWLY NNE ACROSS E TX. AMPLIFICATION OF PLNS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ FROM E TX INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS WILL
ENHANCE NEWD MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
INITIALLY...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL REMAIN CAPPED BENEATH
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TODAY IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THUS...NO
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
SWLY LLJ WILL BE MAINTAINED/SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT FROM THE
ARKLATEX NE INTO THE TN/LWR OH VLYS...SUPPORTING CONTINUED NEWD
MOISTURE FLUX. THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH PLUME OF STEEPENING MID LVL
LAPSE RATES SPREADING E AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH.
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A GRADUALLY DEEPENING UNSTABLE
LAYER...WHERE MUCAPE MAY APPROACH 500-600 J/KG. THIS
DESTABILIZATION...ALONG WITH INCREASING UVV...MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/TSTMS BASED AROUND 850 MB LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LWR MS VLY. MODEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SVR THREAT...ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL COULD
ACCOMPANY A FEW STORMS.
..CORFIDI/BOTHWELL.. 11/23/2008
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