SWOD48
SPC AC 230842
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2008
VALID 261200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SHIFTING AN UPPER
TROUGH EWD FROM CA ON WED/DAY 4 INTO THE KS/OK AREA BY FRI/DAY 6.
HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS YIELDS A CLOSED LOW ON THE ECMWF ON FRI...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE ON THE MREF. ALTHOUGH THE LOCATION OF SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT VARIES...ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUPPORT RICHER GULF
MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD INTO TX AND THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY FRI/FRI
NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
IN TX ON FRI AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT. UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENCES OF MODEL
FEATURES PRECLUDE A SEVERE OUTLOOK ATTM.
..IMY.. 11/23/2008
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