SWODY2
SPC AC 230540
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM MN/WI SWD INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN AMPLIFY ESEWD INTO THE ERN CONUS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS A 90-100 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX ROTATES
SEWD ALONG THE SWRN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH. STRONG MASS
CONVERGENCE AND VERTICAL MOTION WILL SUPPORT THIS PCPN EXPANDING EWD
INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES. EVEN THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE SLOWLY MOISTENING...STABLE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SHOULD BE UNSUPPORTIVE OF DEEP ENOUGH CONVECTION FOR LIGHTNING.
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL REGION...THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE WILL BE SHIFTING EWD AWAY FROM THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
MUCAPES AROUND 500 MB MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD THROUGH THE REGION.
..IMY.. 11/23/2008
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