Sunday, September 12, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1815

ACUS11 KWNS 122309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122308
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-130015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1815
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL IA...EXTREME SWRN WI AND NWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 122308Z - 130015Z

...SHORT-TERM THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...

ISOLATED SUPERCELL ALONG THE MS RIVER SE OF KDBQ HAS PRODUCED
MEASURED 74 KT WIND GUSTS AT DUBUQUE AIRPORT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS AGITATED CUMULUS UPSTREAM FROM THIS CELL TO NEAR WATERLOO WITH
ELEVATED STORMS TRYING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE IA/WI BORDER N
OF KDBQ.

LEADING WELL-ESTABLISHED STORM MAY CONTINUE ESE INTO NCNTRL IL IN
WNW DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW REGIME AS IT IS FED FROM THE WEST BY JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN THE STORM. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. QUESTION BECOMES IF
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM. LATEST WRF-NMM4KM SUGGESTS
THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY FORM THIS EVENING AND IF THIS
OCCURS...A CONVECTIVE WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

..RACY.. 09/12/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 42759106 42438964 42308897 42048884 41778889 41608916
41718973 41899028 42159104 42329132 42449129 42639135
42759106

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