SWODY1
SPC AC 120517
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ERN CAROLINAS/SE GA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD TODAY. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED IN THE ERN CAROLINAS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING AT 12Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS MORNING IN
WILMINGTON NC AND CHARLESTON SC SHOW MID 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS WITH
MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS ALONG
WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE
LINE-SEGMENTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
...GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY AS SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE ESEWD THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO INCREASE LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MODEL
FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A POCKET OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS NRN LAKE MI...NRN LOWER MI AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE SBCAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE AS SFC TEMPS WARM BENEATH A
COLD POCKET ALOFT. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 50 TO 55 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...500 MB TEMPS OF -18C TO-20C AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH THE
MORE INTENSE CELLS.
..BROYLES/SMITH.. 09/12/2010
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