SWODY2
SPC AC 120557
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CONUS ON MONDAY. GRADUAL SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS/LEE TROUGHING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A NORTHWARD RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. WHILE APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE LACKING...IT IS PROBABLE THAT SUFFICIENT MASS
CONVERGENCE/MIXING IN VICINITY OF A WEST-EAST BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
KS/SOUTHERN NEB. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 1500-2500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE...VEERING WIND PROFILES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 30-35
MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/SOME
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS
SHOULD EXPAND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT...NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE AS A MODERATE LOW
LEVEL JET NOCTURNALLY INCREASES.
...NORTHEAST STATES/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
IT APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATELY STRONG/NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
..GUYER.. 09/12/2010
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