SWODY3
SPC AC 120729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...
LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS ON TUESDAY. WHILE SPECIFIC TIMING OF LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURES
VARIES...00Z ECMWF/GFS/NAM CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
OTHERWISE RETURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL IMPULSES/ONSET OF HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD AID
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN/DESTABILIZATION MAY BE LIMITED WITH NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT.
FARTHER SOUTH/EAST...THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS PORTION OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE/INSTABILITY AXIS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS...MAY BE SUBJECT TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING/MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE
THROUGH PEAK HEATING. AS SUCH...THE PROSPECTS FOR APPRECIABLE
VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT /AND TIMING THEREOF/ ARE QUESTIONABLE IN
SPITE OF AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT /SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS/
IS PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY...WILL DEFER TO
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR POTENTIAL INTRODUCTION OF A CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT RISK BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES/LIMITATIONS.
..GUYER.. 09/12/2010
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