SWOD48
SPC AC 120848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY ZONAL/LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE.
THE MAIN SEVERE FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY.
WHILE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING A RELATIVELY LOW
AMPLITUDE IMPULSE THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDWEST...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST
ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS IT INTERCEPTS A
RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS SCENARIO
WILL PERHAPS BE CENTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/KS/IA/MO.
AFOREMENTIONED TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES PRECLUDES
CONSIDERATION OF A /30 PERCENT CALIBER/ SEVERE RISK AREA.
THEREAFTER...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE
INTO DAY 5/THURSDAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST/TN VALLEY AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
A SOUTHWARD SHUNTED WARM/MOIST SECTOR IN CONJUNCTION WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD OTHERWISE KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LIMITED
INTO THE WEEKEND.
..GUYER.. 09/12/2010
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