MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0044

ACUS11 KWNS 251820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251819
FLZ000-GAZ000-251915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251819Z - 251915Z

SETUP APPEARS TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS WITH DMGG
WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL.
A WW LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.

BROKEN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA...SOUTH OF SLOWLY-MOVING
WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR KCTY TO NEAR KJAX. THE FRONT
SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY N THROUGH LATE TODAY...WHILE
NE-SW ORIENTED QLCS...NOW LOCATED ABOUT 90 NM WNW OF KTPA...
CONTINUES E AT 40-45 KTS.

AREA VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE DEEP SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WITH 30-35 KT SLY LOW LVL FLOW VEERING TO 40+ KT
WSWLY AT 500 MB. OVERALL WIND FIELD GRADUALLY SHOULD INCREASE...AND
CURRENT WEAKNESS IN OBSERVED FLOW AROUND 700 MB SHOULD DIMINISH...AS
UPR IMPULSE/JET STREAK NOW OVER LA CONTINUE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT.

COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AMPLE MOISTURE /AREA PW AROUND
1.25 INCHES/...AND ASCENT WITH UPR IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/SMALL LEWPS WITH DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES AS QLCS
CONTINUES EWD. SOME POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF QLCS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN
FL...WHERE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE LIKELY WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF SEA
BREEZE FRONT. SLIGHTLY BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW IN THIS REGION MAY
LOCALLY ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT EARLY THIS EVE.

..CORFIDI.. 01/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 28608316 29578348 30238275 30668183 30568125 29778092
29148076 28168064 27048155 26928255 28608316

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