Tuesday, January 25, 2011

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 250955
SWOD48
SPC AC 250955

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL STATES. ON FRIDAY/DAY 4...THE
GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EWD APPROACHING TX ON SATURDAY/DAY 5.
AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE MODELS RETURN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NWD INTO SOUTH AND CNTRL TX. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MOIST AXIS ON THE TX COASTAL PLAINS AND IN EAST TX
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SEEMINGLY BE POSSIBLE IF SFC DEWPOINTS CAN REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 60S F ACROSS PARTS OF TX. FROM SUNDAY/DAY 6 TO TUESDAY/DAY
8...THE MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN
STATES AND KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN TX EARLY NEXT WEEK IF
MOISTURE CAN RETURN NWD AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CAN MOVE INTO THE
SRN PLAINS. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH CONCERNING THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECASTS AND WILL NOT ISSUE A SEVERE THREAT AREA ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 01/25/2011

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