SWODY1
SPC AC 250546
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW WILL EXIST WITHIN A MEAN LONGWAVE
TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES. POSITIVELY TILTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY TODAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD/TAKE ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. TIED TO THIS ADVANCING TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIRMASS...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT/ANTICIPATED SQUALL LINE.
...FL PENINSULA...
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY...WITH SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS LATER TONIGHT ALONG/OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY
QUICK AIRMASS MODIFICATION/NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA INTO TONIGHT. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...MID/SOME
UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...WITH LOWER/SOME MID 60S ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLE BUOYANCY FOR
SEVERE TSTMS...WITH AS MUCH AS 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE
DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA WITHIN A
MOISTENING/WEAKLY INHIBITED BOUNDARY LAYER...WELL AHEAD OF WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE AN EVOLVING SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE/PERHAPS INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT...AHEAD OF
/AND ASSOCIATED WITH/ AN INLAND ADVANCING SQUALL LINE...AS
SEMI-DISCRETE/POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY
EAST/SOUTH OF SUCH A CONVECTIVE LINE. RELATIVELY STRONG/VEERING WIND
PROFILES /DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT/ ACCENTUATED BY 0-1 KM SRH
AROUND 150-250 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
INCLUDING BOTH SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS. IN ALL...IT APPEARS THE RELATIVELY GREATEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY MORE SO TONIGHT.
..GUYER/COHEN/GRAMS.. 01/25/2011
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