SWODY2
SPC AC 250607
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN AND CNTRL FL/ERN CAROLINAS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO OPEN AND MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEWD
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF GA...SC AND NC WITH THE WARM SECTOR
REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE. SFC DEWPOINTS JUST INLAND ACROSS SC COULD
REACH THE 50S F WITH LOW 60S F POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
ALONG WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXIT REGION OF A WELL-DEFINED 90 TO 110 KT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST ACROSS
FAR ERN NC BEFORE 18Z AS THE SFC LOW PASSES BY.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO FLORIDA FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CNTRL AND SRN
FL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S F WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
EXIST. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS SRN FL AND DRIES THE
AIRMASS OUT.
..BROYLES.. 01/25/2011
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