SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120032
OKZ000-TXZ000-120300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN PANHANDLE OF TX...CAPROCK/LOW-ROLLING
PLAINS OF NW TX...WRN OK.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 120032Z - 120300Z
BKN BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH
CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR SVR...WILL PROCEED EWD TO SEWD ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA. PRIND ACTIVITY IS PAST PEAK SVR POTENTIAL...WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER AFTER ABOUT 01Z. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
MEANWHILE LARGE HAIL IS MAIN CONCERN.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER N-CENTRAL TX/CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE
REGION...WITH WAVY DRYLINE EXTENDING GENERALLY SWD ACROSS ERN
FRINGES AMA AREA...CROSSING I-27 BETWEEN CANYON-PVW THEN GENERALLY
SSWWD TO BETWEEN MAF-INK. COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM LOW NEWD
ACROSS N-CENTRAL KS. MODEL SOUNDING AND JTN PROFILER SHOW FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE SRH 150-300 J/KG AND CORRIDOR OF
40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE NEAR PRESENT LOCATION OF
CONVECTIVE BAND. 30-35 KT LLJ E OF DRYLINE SHOULD MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES...WHILE DEEP-LAYER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IS MAINTAINED BY VEERING OF MID-UPPER FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME FOR ORGANIZED SVR. MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS REASONABLY SUGGEST THAT SFC DIABATIC
COOLING WILL RESULT IN DECREASINGLY SFC-BASED PARCELS IN MOIST
SECTOR. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG
RETREATING DRYLINE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BECOME LESS PROBABLE WITH
TIME THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING BASED ON THOSE THERMAL TRENDS THAT
YIELD STRENGTHENING MLCINH TO ITS E.
..EDWARDS.. 10/12/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33650109 35520086 36410021 36309929 34959930 33729986
33349991 33170059 33650109
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