SWODY2
SPC AC 110605
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE MID MS
VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER JET DEVELOPS SEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND N-S THROUGH THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY
DURING THE DAY. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...A NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE NERN STATES.
...ERN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY AREA...
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MODEST WITH MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS OWING TO ENELY LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES OVER THE NRN GULF THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT AREAS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN
PROGRESS OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION WITHIN ZONE OF DPVA IN
ADVANCE OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...BUT LOCALLY STRONGER
INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP WHERE DIABATIC WARMING OCCURS OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE AREAS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SOME INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT. GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR /AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION/ SHOULD DEVELOP FROM ERN PORTIONS OF
SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL
EXIST WITHIN BASE OF TROUGH. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA...
SOME THREAT FOR ROTATING CONVECTION WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
EJECTING BUT DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NE OF ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BACKED.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT
SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WHERE LARGEST HODOGRAPHS WILL
LIKELY EXIST.
..DIAL.. 10/11/2011
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