SWODY3
SPC AC 110730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST ON THURSDAY WILL BE HIGH AMPLITUDE
NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE ERN STATES.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PACIFIC FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION
OF THE OH VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD.
...TN VALLEY AREA THROUGH A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES...
NLY TRAJECTORIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN WITH NWD EXTENT THROUGH THE TN
AND OH VALLEYS THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE 50S
OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TO LOW 60S OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WITHIN ZONE OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION WITH MARGINAL MLCAPE LIKELY.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION MAY BE FARTHER
EAST FROM GA INTO THE CAROLINAS WHERE THERMAL TROUGH MAY BE MORE
FAVORABLY TIMED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. THE STRONGEST SHEAR
PROFILES WILL EXIST OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES WHERE UPPER
JET WILL DROP SEWD INTO BASE OF TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER IN THESE AREAS IS FORECAST TO BE SHALLOW OWING TO A SUBSIDENCE
LAYER ALOFT IN WAKE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WIND PROFILES WITH
NWD EXTENT INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS WILL BE WEAKER...BUT MAY BECOME
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND
COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD POSE AT LEAST A MODEST
THREAT FOR HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..DIAL.. 10/11/2011
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