SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112048
TXZ000-OKZ000-112145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2247
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...PORTIONS OF TX S PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 112048Z - 112145Z
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND THE TX S PLAINS. PRIMARY
THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...BUT
ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS ELONGATED TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH PRIMARY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
STRETCHING FROM W-CNTRL TX INTO WRN OK. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER JET CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES IS NOW
BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS /AS SAMPLED BY TCU
PROFILER/. AT THE SFC...20Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES A DEEPENING
SFC LOW APPROXIMATELY 30 E GUY...WITH A DIFFUSE DRYLINE/TROUGH
PROTRUDING SSWD TO NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ALONG WEAKLY
CONFLUENT SFC TROUGH/LOW...AND WITH LITTLE TO NO CINH IN PLACE...AT
LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY 22Z /AS SUPPORTED
BY SEVERAL RUNS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL WRF-HRRR/.
MORE ROBUST TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE PRECLUDED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND UNFAVORABLE PHASING OF UPPER TROUGH /MOVING E OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA/...ALTHOUGH WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET
MAY ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...INSTABILITY IS QUITE MARGINAL OWING TO MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /MLCAPE VALUES 500-1000 J/KG/...BUT
STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND.
..ROGERS.. 10/11/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 36200006 35180005 33280026 32420117 32230169 32260243
32530267 33350234 34990200 36020192 36840146 36980115
36980074 36820017 36200006
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment