SWODY2
SPC AC 111719
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED ACROSS PARTS OF THE E CNTRL
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE LWR MO VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU...
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES PROGRESSING THROUGH A STRONG BELT OF FLOW
ROUNDING THE CREST OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST MAY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SOME DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BUT MODELS
INDICATE THAT A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN...AS
ONE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE/SPEED MAXIMUM DIGS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU
REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING EMERGING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND NOW LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST REGION...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.
...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITH THE LATTER FEATURE ALONG A WEAK FRONT NEAR
MID AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A LINGERING MOIST AIR MASS SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUING
RISK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FIELDS AND SHEAR SEEM LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...WHICH PROBABLY
WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. MODELS DO SUGGEST MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS INTO
VIRGINIA...WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO VERTICAL SHEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IF THIS OCCURS...AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
...E CNTRL PLAINS INTO LWR MO VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU...
FOR NOW...A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK IS BEING MAINTAINED WHERE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...WEAK LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR EVIDENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS REGIME SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL MAY BE MARGINAL AT BEST...AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES
AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH.
..KERR.. 10/11/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment