SWODY1
SPC AC 120100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011
VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...PLAINS...
WITHIN A WELL-SHEARED/MODEST BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT...ONGOING
SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SHORT-TERM SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX INTO WESTERN OK
THIS EVENING. WITH TIME...A NOCTURNALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN AT LEAST A LOOSE
GROUPING OF THESE STORMS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OK/NORTH TX...BUT NOTHING BEYOND SPORADIC/MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND
IS ANTICIPATED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/INFLOW BECOMES MORE
ELEVATED. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TX/WESTERN OK...REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2248.
ELSEWHERE...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...AND/OR THE OZARKS.
HOWEVER...ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY MARGINAL/SPORADIC AS
WELL.
...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
WITH A MARITIME AIRMASS JUST OFF SHORE...WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX INTO COASTAL AREAS
TONIGHT. WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW KM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
VEER/WEAKEN WITH TIME...WILL MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY NEAR-COASTAL SMALL SUPERCELLS TONIGHT.
..GUYER.. 10/12/2011
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