SWODY1
SPC AC 111259
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST THU NOV 11 2010
VALID 111300Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY E THIS PERIOD WHILE
POSITIVE TILT GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVES ESE TO THE SRN
RCKYS...RESULTING IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH FROM BLACK HILLS TO
FAR W TX. AT THE SFC...FALLING PRESSURES E OF THE RCKYS WILL ALLOW
NWWD ADVANCE/REDEVELOPMENT OF FRONT NOW STALLED OVER THE SRN PLNS.
BY THIS EVE...THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ENE ACROSS NRN OK INTO
CNTRL/SRN MO FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN NE NM. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN...SRN PART OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE E/SE
AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN HI PLNS EARLY FRI. IN THE MEANTIME...
DRYLINE NOW OVER W TX SHOULD REORIENT MERIDIONALLY...WITH THE
FEATURE EXTENDING FROM SW TX NWD INTO W CNTRL OK BY LATE IN THE DAY.
...CNTRL/SRN PLNS TO LWR MO VLY...
TWO MAIN EPISODES OF DEEP CONVECTION/TSTMS APPEAR LIKELY THIS
PERIOD. FIRST...ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEEPEN INTO ISOLD TO
WDLY SCTD TSTMS OVER PARTS OF KS/OK AND PERHAPS SW MO TOWARD MIDDAY
AS WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHEN ATOP SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE.
BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR SVR WEATHER.
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BANDS OF TSTMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND N OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT FROM PARTS OF W TX AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES NEWD INTO KS AND THE LWR MO VLY AS WAA... MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...AND UVV FURTHER STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING
UPR IMPULSE. SOME SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS AFTN IN TX...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING...MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN...AND CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT/DRYLINE ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. STEADILY INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW OVERNIGHT
ACCOMPANYING 40-45 KT LLJ...AND STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING/REGENERATIVE
ACTIVITY SSW TOWARD THE UPR RED RVR VLY REGION...WHILE DOWNSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT SPREADS NE INTO THE LWR MO VLY.
THE FRONTAL STORMS OVER THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD SPREAD GRADUALLY EWD
AMIDST MODEST INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE REMAINING GENERALLY AOB 500
J/KG. SHALLOW/NOCTURNALLY-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DAMPEN
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SFC GUSTS. GIVEN LINEAR MODE...LACK
OF STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND WEAK CLOUD LAYER SHEAR...SVR HAIL
ALSO APPEARS UNLIKELY. LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD
PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE SVR THREAT WITH STORMS OVER THE CNTRL
PLNS/LWR MO VLY.
...FOUR CORNERS...
ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD...SHALLOW...AND HIGH-BASED TSTMS MAY FORM
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTN AS STG MID LVL COOLING/ASCENT
OVERSPREAD AREA AHEAD OF GRT BASIN TROUGH.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 11/11/2010
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