SWODY2
SPC AC 170557
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS --
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHERE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL RESIDE...GENERAL AGREEMENT CONTINUES THAT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SWRN FRINGE OF AN ERN CANADA
VORTEX WILL DIG RAPIDLY SEWD WITH TIME...RESULTING IN A VERY
LARGE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM.
UPSTREAM...SHARP RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH A
SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH REACHING THE PAC NW/NRN CA COAST BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A GENERALLY WEAK/DISORGANIZED/BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
AND TN VALLEY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. CONSOLIDATION OF
A SURFACE LOW E OF THE APPALACHIANS NEAR THE SE U.S. COAST IS
PROGGED BY THE GFS...THOUGH THE NAM REMAINS BROAD/DISORGANIZED WITH
THE LOW UNTIL AFTER THE DAY 2 PERIOD.
...FL AND THE GA/CAROLINA COASTS...
SITUATION REMAINS COMPLEX...WITH THE NAM AND GFS STILL DIFFERING
WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURES. ATTM...MAIN
AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE IN THE PERIOD. HERE...MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD A LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATION -- AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.
LESSER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS FL...AND INTO THE TN
VALLEY REGION WHERE MODELS ROUGHLY AGREE ON THE AFTERNOON COLD
FRONTAL POSITION. ATTM HOWEVER...WILL INCLUDE ONLY COASTAL AREAS
AND FL IN THE LOW PROBABILITY THREAT...AND WILL REFRAIN FROM SLIGHT
RISK ISSUANCE DUE TO BOTH PERSISTENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY...AND
SECONDARILY TO THE POSSIBILITY THAT INSTABILITY REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
FOR MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT.
..GOSS.. 10/17/2011
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