Monday, October 17, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180059
SWODY1
SPC AC 180057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/TX/AR...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX...
WITHIN AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH...AN EMBEDDED/SOUTHEAST-DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING TSTM
COVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM THIS EVENING IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL STEADILY CONGEAL AND
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A BROAD CONVECTIVE LINE WHILE SPREADING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN A STEEP LAPSE
RATE/STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS SAMPLED PER THE 00Z NORMAN
OBSERVED SOUNDING...SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS THIS EVENING. STORM
INTENSITY WILL LIKELY WANE BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES/STORMS ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED INFLOW WHILE
OTHERWISE BEING UNDERCUT BY THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

...FAR SOUTH FL...
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...BUT THE
00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM KEY WEST REFLECTS MODERATE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WITHIN A MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. WHILE ANY SUCH POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...WILL MAINTAIN 2 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR A
BRIEF TORNADO/WATERSPOUT THREAT TONIGHT IN VICINITY OF THE FL
KEYS/STRAITS.

..GUYER.. 10/18/2011

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