SWOD48
SPC AC 170847
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BREAKS DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER
DAY 5 /SAT. OCT. 22/...BUT UNTIL THEN SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE
LOW...AS A LARGE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
SLOWLY DEPARTS AND BROAD NWLY FLOW ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS THE CONUS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING COOLER/DRIER AIR SPREADING
ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ERN
LOW...RATHER UNEVENTFUL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS.
..GOSS.. 10/17/2011
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