SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170839
FLZ000-171115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS LOWER-MIDDLE FL KEYS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 170839Z - 171115Z
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW COVERAGE OF RELATIVELY DISCRETE
CONVECTION INCREASING FROM LOWER KEYS SEWD ACROSS STRAITS AT LEAST
180 NM PAST CAY SAL BANK AND JUST OFFSHORE N-CENTRAL CUBA.
WATERSPOUTS FROM ROTATING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WATERS NEAR
KEYS...AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER LOWER-MIDDLE
KEYS THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING.
DISCRETE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND
SMALL WITH LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING PRODUCTION -- I.E. OCNL
WARM-CLOUD/MINI-SUPERCELLULAR SHOWERS. EXPECT WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY BOTTOM-HEAVY PROFILE OF BUOYANCY. RICH
LOW-LEVEL THETAE AND 2.25-2.5 INCH PW SUPPORTS MLCAPE AROUND 500
J/KG OVER STRAITS...DECREASING NWD ACROSS FL BAY. LOWER-MIDDLE KEYS
AND ADJACENT WATERS LIE WITHIN NERN FRINGE OF ENHANCED
BOUNDARY-LAYER SHEAR...BASED ON EYW/MIA VWP...OBSERVED SFC WINDS AND
LOW-LEVEL MODEL ANALYSES. 0-1 KM SRH HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY IN
250-300 J/KG RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND EYW...BENEATH 20-30 KT
SELY LLJ THAT LIKELY STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT FARTHER SW TOWARD AREAS
OFFSHORE NWRN CUBA. BULK OF STRONGER AND MORE CONSISTENTLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN S AND W OF LOWER KEYS...WHERE RUC
AND ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COMPARABLE BUOYANCY AND LARGER
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT INTERMITTENT CONVECTIVE-SCALE ROTATION WITH CELLS APCHG
LOWER-MIDDLE KEYS.
REF NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS -- WMO HEADER ABNT20 KNHC -- FOR
LATEST FCST GUIDANCE ON RELATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INVOF NERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ITS POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
..EDWARDS.. 10/17/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...KEY...
LAT...LON 24908058 24758090 24628122 24628146 24538172 24538181
24528221 24608220 24578199 24598172 24768145 24758131
24738114 24868082 24948067 24908058
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