SWODY2
SPC AC 171725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE AND TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING MUCH OF FLORIDA...
...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES PROGRESSING AROUND LARGE-SCALE
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST...MODELS INDICATE THAT A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH...CENTERED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS
APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM UPPER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS AND
WESTERN GULF COAST REGION...AND EASTWARD THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODELS INDICATE THAT
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL ACCOMPANY AN IMPULSE LIKELY TO
LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA...BEFORE CONTINUING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD NEAR SOUTH ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS. ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
WIND FIELDS AND THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
...MUCH OF NRN FL...THE FL PEN...AND THE S ATLANTIC COAST...
VARIABILITY LINGERS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING SMALLER SCALE
DEVELOPMENTS WHICH WILL IMPACT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF
SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW FIELDS WILL OCCUR /TO 40-50+ KT/...LIKELY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON...NORTHWARD INTO
COASTAL EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AS
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND INCREASES DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO ALREADY
BE HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
12Z TUESDAY...AND CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SEEM LIKELY TO BECOME
INCREASING CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY ULTIMATELY
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL NORTHWARD ADVANCING BAND OF
WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN CONVECTION...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
..KERR.. 10/17/2011
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