SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172203
FLZ000-172300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...UPR FL KEYS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 172203Z - 172300Z
AREA OF CONVECTION 25 ESE OF MTH MAY POSE A BRIEF THREAT FOR A
WATERSPOUT DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS...AS WELL AS A TORNADO IF
ACTIVITY CAN MOVE ACROSS THE UPR FL KEYS. OVERALL SVR WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WW.
HI-RES KBYX RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED ROUGHLY 25 ESE OF MTH AT 2150Z. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS FOR THE MOST PART REMAINED STATIONARY DURING THE LAST HR...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE NNE OBSERVED IN RADAR IMAGERY. LATEST VWP
FROM BYX SHOWS E-NELY SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO SLY AT 3 KM
AGL...RESULTING IN ENLARGED HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE AND 0-1 KM SRH
VALUES FROM 100-200 M2 S-2. THIS SHEAR PROFILE APPEARS TO BE AIDING
IN RELATIVELY STRONG UPDRAFT ROTATION IN THE SRN MOST CELL...DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE VALUES
AOB 500 J PER KG/. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR...A SHORT TERM THREAT
FOR A WATERSPOUT WILL EXIST WITH THIS CONVECTION...AS WELL AS A
TORNADO IF STORMS CAN MOVE ACROSS THE UPR KEYS. DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HRS...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD DECREASE
THE THREAT FOR A BRIEF WATERSPOUT/TORNADO.
..GARNER.. 10/17/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
LAT...LON 24718026 24408099 24648123 24858112 25118048 24718026
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