SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182059
OKZ000-TXZ000-182130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 182059Z - 182130Z
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL TX
DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS SVR STORMS POSING A
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WW IS LIKELY.
AT 20Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD FROM NERN OK INTO PORTIONS
OF CNTRL TX. RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY FLAT CU
FIELD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
TOWERING CUMULUS NEAR THE RED RIVER. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
SLOWLY DESTABILIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON...UPPER VORT LOBE IS
SITUATED IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE REGION...LEADING TO NEGLIGIBLE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THUS...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND SUBSEQUENT
COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN ATTM DURING THE SHORT TERM.
NEVERTHELESS...ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SVR MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORMS...POSING A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. GIVEN
RECENT TRENDS IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...AREA MAY REQUIRE A WW
DURING THE NEXT HR.
..GARNER.. 09/18/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31700069 33189925 33989738 33939504 32609508 30859835
30730024 31700069
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