SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182318
TXZ000-190015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 182318Z - 190015Z
AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL TX. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED...BUT A WW APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM.
RECENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL TSTM CLUSTERS SLOWLY
PROPAGATING SWD ACROSS CNTRL TX. THESE TSTMS ARE MOVING INTO AN
UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG/ AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS...WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FURTHER SWD PROPAGATION. DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF RATHER WEAK 0-6 KM FLOW...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH
NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS YIELDING MODEST EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR /NEAR
30 KTS PER 23Z RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN
MULTICELLULAR STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGEST FORCED ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE SITUATED WELL N OF THE REGION...AND
TSTMS MOVING OFF THE SFC COLD FRONT...PROPAGATION WILL PRIMARILY BE
COLD-POOL DRIVEN AND WILL ONLY YIELD A LOCALIZED WIND/HAIL THREAT.
DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT...A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..ROGERS.. 09/18/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...
LAT...LON 29459833 29239875 29139948 29170029 29430071 29830080
30170060 30230011 30229940 30339891 30409849 30389802
30029784 29459833
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